Daniel Jones leads the league in passing DYAR this year. In fact, it isn’t really that close. Daniel Jones has 442 passing DYAR without opponent adjustments. Josh Allen is at 353. Nobody else is above 300, although Jared Goff or Lamar Jackson could be after Monday Night Football.
This is, of course, totally unexpected. How often does this happen? How often do journeyman quarterbacks suddenly put up huge numbers in the first three weeks of the season? I went back and looked through the entire DVOA database going back to 1978, and I only found three examples of unexpected veteran quarterbacks putting up big numbers that could match what Jones has done through the first three games of the season.
Ryan Fitzpatrick, 2018 Buccaneers: Jameis Winston was suspended for the first three games of the 2018 season and backup Fitzpatrick was outstanding in leading the Bucs to a 2-1 record. Fitzpatrick ranked third with 487 DYAR after three games behind Patrick Mahomes and Drew Brees.
Was it real? No, Fitzpatrick got pulled halfway through the next game and Winston became the starter again. They ended up splitting time during the season and the Bucs finished 5-11.
Brad Johnson, 1999 Redskins: Johnson had started some games for the Vikings but wasn’t well-regarded when he came to Washington for the 1999 season. But he had a phenomenal 542 DYAR in the first three weeks of the season and the Redskins went 2-1 with the only loss coming in overtime, 41-35 to the Cowboys.
Was it real? Sort of, yes. Johnson was eighth in passing DYAR from Week 4 through the end of the season, and the Redskins offense finished first in DVOA. Yes, they were ahead of the Rams, because of opponent adjustments and adjustments for the Rams playing indoors. Washington finished 10-6 and won the NFC East before losing in the Divisional Round to Tampa Bay.
Kurt Warner, 1999 Rams: Also in 1999, this guy came out of nowhere to lead the Rams to a 3-0 start in the first four weeks of the season. (They had a Week 2 bye.) Warner was third with 437 DYAR after four weeks behind Johnson and Drew Bledsoe, who had each played one more game than him.
Was it real? Of course, they won the Super Bowl and Warner is in the Hall of Fame.
I don’t know what we learn from these three players; I think we learn more from the fact that these are the only three players I found who unexpectedly started a season with at least 400 passing DYAR in their first three games. Players with a history like Daniel Jones do not often have a start to the season like Daniel Jones in 2025! Johnson seems like the best comp for Jones, which suggests that Jones can keep it up to have a good season in Indianapolis.
Here are the DYAR stats for Week 3. Remember that we still don’t include opponent adjustments; those get added in next week.
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